I. Adaptative Expectations, and Early Ecological
I. Adaptative Expectations, and Early Ecological Models
Early artificial markets are based on boundedly rational agents
having a set of fixed strategies interacting with each other. The
number of strategies is usually small (often two). The names are
often quite meaningful, like ``trend followers'', ``fundamental
traders'', and ``portfolio insurance traders''. Usually, each
strategy is fixed however, the amount of strength, or population
mass using such a strategy is in some way based on past
performance.
They are a form of adaptive expectations, but of a special type in
that trader types interact. An often interesting result is that
the price impact of destabilizing strategies is not reduced to
zero.
References
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P. De Grauwe, H. Dewachter, and M. Embrechts.
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Blackwell, Oxford, 1993.
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Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot.
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the expectations of chartists and fundamentalists.
In R. Chambers and P. Paarlberg, editors, Agriculture,
Macroeconomics, and the Exchange Rate. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1988.
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G. Gennotte and H. Leland.
Market liquidity, hedging, and crashes.
American Economic Review, 80:999-1021, 1990.
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M. B. Goldman and A. Beja.
Market prices vs. equilibrium prices: Returns' variance, serial
correlation, and the role of the specialist.
Journal of Finance, 34:595-607, 1979.
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Charles Goodhart.
The foreign exchange market: A random walk with a dragging anchor.
Economica, 55:437-60, 1988.
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G. Kim and H. Markowitz.
Investment rules, margin, and market volatility.
Journal of Portfolio Management, pages 45-52, Fall 1989.
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E.C. Zeeman.
On the unstable behavior of stock exchanges.
Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1:39-49, 1974.
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On 11 Sep 1999, 23:30.