I. Adaptative Expectations, and Early Ecological I. Adaptative Expectations, and Early Ecological Models

Early artificial markets are based on boundedly rational agents having a set of fixed strategies interacting with each other. The number of strategies is usually small (often two). The names are often quite meaningful, like ``trend followers'', ``fundamental traders'', and ``portfolio insurance traders''. Usually, each strategy is fixed however, the amount of strength, or population mass using such a strategy is in some way based on past performance.

They are a form of adaptive expectations, but of a special type in that trader types interact. An often interesting result is that the price impact of destabilizing strategies is not reduced to zero.

References

[1]
P. De Grauwe, H. Dewachter, and M. Embrechts. Exchange Rate Theory: Chaotic Models of Foreign Exchange Markets. Blackwell, Oxford, 1993.

[2]
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot. Explaining the demand for dollars: International rates of return and the expectations of chartists and fundamentalists. In R. Chambers and P. Paarlberg, editors, Agriculture, Macroeconomics, and the Exchange Rate. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1988.

[3]
G. Gennotte and H. Leland. Market liquidity, hedging, and crashes. American Economic Review, 80:999-1021, 1990.

[4]
M. B. Goldman and A. Beja. Market prices vs. equilibrium prices: Returns' variance, serial correlation, and the role of the specialist. Journal of Finance, 34:595-607, 1979.

[5]
Charles Goodhart. The foreign exchange market: A random walk with a dragging anchor. Economica, 55:437-60, 1988.

[6]
G. Kim and H. Markowitz. Investment rules, margin, and market volatility. Journal of Portfolio Management, pages 45-52, Fall 1989.

[7]
E.C. Zeeman. On the unstable behavior of stock exchanges. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1:39-49, 1974.


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