Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge

'Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge' Review of Economics and Statistics 70 (November 1988) 623-630 (with R. Cumby and S. Figlewski).

Standard approaches to designing a futures hedge often suffer from two major problems. First, they focus only on minimizing risk, so no account is taken of the impact on expected return. Second, in estimating the hedge ratio, no allowance is made for tiime variation in the distribution of cash and futures price changes. This paper describes a technique for estimating the optimal futures hedge that corrects these problems, and illustrates its use in hedging Treasury bonds with T-bond futures.


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